The Gorilla in the Room
A New Centrist Party – Independence in the Political Animal Circus?
An 800 Pound Gorilla – not a Phoenix Bird
Until only recently, the mainstream media seemed to consider the rise of a new major political party in America as anything but serious – treated only in passing as unrealistic if even mentioned. Conventional wisdom in America has long assumed that third parties represent only fringe political elements not worthy of consideration as serious contenders. Pervasive opinion expressed that their existence spoils the chances of one or the other party winning a national election by “stealing” votes from the losing party's side. But now, dawning upon some discerning political pachyderms is an awareness of a presence in the room – an 800-pound gorilla.
Is it possible that, at the surprised consternation of many, a new major political party could seem suddenly to arise to political dominance? From whence might it come seemingly out of nowhere? Rather than a single major party Phoenix rising from its own ashes, could a Gorilla materialize out of the ashes of both?
The Nature of the "Beast"
What would this Gorilla look like? – The Jury is out
History teaches 1 that clarity seems to come only in hindsight – revealed over time. We live on the cusp of change in a period rife with wicked problems. Many complex factors interdependently operate at a faster pace than just about anyone can fathom. (Something that could be likened to the task of bouncing on a pogo stick in an effort to nail jello to a tree during an earthquake and while accompanying General Custer at the Battle of Little Big Horn.) Simple solutions are ineffective. We seem to find ourselves under the purported ancient Chinese curse: “May you live in interesting times!”
America voted in its 2008 national election for “Change you can count on” and it looks like we got what we wished for – another Chinese curse. Perhaps like bananas (that come in bunches), the Chinese seem to have understood the grouping of those two curses with another: “May you come to the attention of those in authority!” Unfortunately, all three curses appear to be active on the American scene these days.
Times of transition, of course, are always dangerous. The behavior of stable systems may be predictable, but some changes can destabilize a system. The system dynamics become non-linear and seemingly less predictable – at least until the complexity of behavior is understood or the system reaches a new balance state. Like a gyroscope near the end of its “Spin Cycle” only a little nudge can send it wildly gyrating unpredictably seemingly out of control. (This, while still obeying the simple laws of physics. )
History in the Making
At the end of the 21st century's first decade, American society would appear to be living betwixt a rock and a hard place – finding itself suffering from both a dying global threat – Communism thrashing in the surf of its ebb tide slide into the trash heap of history – while at the same time from tidal effects of the waxing moon of Radical Islamism washing across shores around the World spreading its absolutist infection.
On the one hand, there seems yet to be some fight in the most recent global nemesis as "Leftover Leftists" would appear to be striving like dead-ender zombies to restore the old glory of the Soviet style Internationale. In a couple of countries there appears to be some cheering on and awaiting with baited breath as great leader-demigods slash their way through the brambles of free market economies as if seeking out the apotheossified remains of that "Supreme Leader" in his sleeping beauty case apparently intent on kissing those waxy lips to see if Lenin will rise up and smile.
On the other hand, Radical Islamist elements appear hell bent on working toward restoring the former glory of Islamic Caliphates that ruled over extensive empires across thirteen centuries. In comparison with that theism-based governing season of power, the global hegemony of atheism-based Marxism's could be said to have lasted only seven decades. And, in comparison, the ascendancy of Hitler's Third Reich lasted less than a decade.
Hung up on the Rocks in the Surf
The focus of Marxism-Leninism revival has, as from the beginning, been on countering greed for wealth & power found in the ruling classes – “capitalist class” wealthy owners & investors. Unfortunately, greed for wealth & power has been ever present amongst the flora & fauna of all mankind's cultures & societies since time immemorial. Deserting their sinking Party ship as the Soviet Empire crumbled, powerful Communist Party Kleptocrats managed the sale of state owned enterprises into their own control at fire sale prices to become a new class of Russian Capitalist Oligarchs – merely changing over their means of control from their Marxist-based support system.
Would not Lord Acton's dictum hold true for any centralized power, that “Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely”? And would not absolutist or fascist control in any form tend to corrupt – be it founded on Marxism, Capitalism, or Theism – i.e. regardless of whether it stems from capitalism-based National Socialism (NAZI) government, Marxism-Leninism-based “Dictatorship of the Proletariat” or Islamism-based Sharia law?
In any society, besides the crowd of individual back-room deal makers seeking their own way up the corruption-ladder of success, networks of power brokers seem to find ways of leveraging to their own advantage whatever system of governance holds sway where they find themselves.
Seemingly dawning upon the American public is an awareness of, and disgust for the American two-party body politic and how riddled with power brokers feathering their own nests it appears to be. Many in that public would seem ready to wish a pox upon both houses. The increasingly polarized two-party struggle would seem only to worsen the public's attitude.
But, while the public's immediate attention has been has been focused on the above conflict, another revivalist movement has been metastasizing like cancer across the planet seemingly under the radar of those focusing on the last global challenge.
Waves Dashing Us Against the Hard Place
In the aftermath of the 9/11 events, America began to address the new “haunting spectre” – the new global challenge of Radical Islamism; however, that effort now seems to be sidelined while America channels its energy into resolving issues from yesterday's struggle that seem to keep lingering on. In the meantime, this newly morphed but decades-old infection continues spreading & festering. Some may be too naive to understand the rising global threat of Radical Islamism, but many would appear simply to have too much of their attention diverted to focus on the old Marxism-Leninism they know & grew up with.
Gorilla Out of the Jungle?
As America turns away from staring into the abyss of these challenging times contemplating what to do, what shall come forth out of the creative energy stirred up by these challenges? How and when such a beast might materialize in our midst would certainly depend on events and exigencies as they arise. Like offensive/defensive play during a fast moving hockey game affect developing strategies, the tumultuous churn of on-going events and their effects should be expected to shape what evolves.
Coalition Emerges out of Nowhere?
As elements coalesce and rise seemingly out of nowhere to form a new major political party, it may surprise many how quickly it could happen. Could we witness a seeming epidemic outbreak of jumping on the bandwagon?
If Malcolm Gladwell is to be believed, when the time is ripe and conditions are right, a tipping point event can trigger a sudden release of pent up energy and frustration. The fact of the trigger event gives permission for others to do what seemed otherwise unthinkable. In a snowball effect, small beginnings can pick up momentum and become an unstoppable force.
Some triggering events could be happening before our very eyes today, but possibly may be perceived as such only in hindsight. Volcanic eruptions are preceded by numerous events difficult even for the experts to detect and interpret; however, once it erupts, there is no question as to what's going on. Lava flowing from hidden magma chambers is there for all to see and experience.
Similarly, the elements of a new coalition can emerge from their hiding places in plain sight – only seemingly out of nowhere. So, what appears initially as a surprise could be more like in a public paradigm shift from the existing two-party – (D) vs. (R) model – two major bodies with LITTLE “i” moons (independents) in orbit around them. Yet, as surprise from an unanticipated event fades, hindsight generally can reveal some pretty deep roots leading to it. Monday morning quarterbacks are likely to discover plenty of precursor threads that were hidden in plain sight. In the minds of those who could perceive it coming, an unexpressed question has been moot for some time now: could the this new coalition party draw more from (D) or (R) domains?
Coalition of Whom? – Nature of the Beast
The nature of the coalition that forms, of course, should depend upon the dynamic mix of players attracted to the cause -- some of them already in the “little i” class cited above. Of likely players for the new alliance already in plain sight, some would seem obvious, some not so obvious. Although some potential players might be considered “no-brainer” choices, only hindsight of history can judge how obvious and valid that conjecture may be.
Personalities that do engage can strongly influence outcome. Movements afoot already have organization & platform planks ready to shape up & lay down. The players' tasks would be to come to agreement to build their political bandwagon & platform.
Potential candidate players that could jump on board to influence the character of the new party could include (in somewhat arbitrary order, roughly from seeming most likely to get on the bandwagon):
Political Insiders & Outsiders, Strategic Thinkers & Influencers
- Sarah Palin – state governor & VP candidate
- Joe Lieberman – acting Senator already elected as (i.) independent, caucusing with (D) but supported John McCain in 2008 Presidential election
- John McCain – senior senator, presidential candidate with military record of heroic bravery, seemingly too centrist for some on the (R) side.
- Newt Gingrich – former (R) House Speaker & Contract with America author, founder of bi-partisan American Solutions effort
- Ron Paul – congressman (R), presidential candidate & long time independent thinker
- Jesse Ventura – state governor & long time independent thinker
- Ralph Nader – independent presidential candidate & long time independent thinker
- Colin Powell – a “reluctant general” like Geo. Washington with impeccable leadership qualifications (military, political, international, domestic), but seemingly fed up with American “politics as usual” (and too much a gentleman to make a big public issue of it)
Movements & factions
- Tea Party Protests – grass roots movement sprung up in spirit of the original Boston Tea Party
- 9-12 Project – focused on returning to founding fathers' principles
- Blue Dog Coalition – semi-independent (D) centrist element
- American Solutions – attempt at cross-party collaboration to work starting from points of agreement rather than differences toward resolving important issues facing the nation
- a chorus of individual voices rising to fame above the noise floor (similar to that of “Joe the plumber” and those speaking out at the Tea Parties and Town Hall Meetings)
- “swing voters” who do not follow any particular party's line
The New Big Tent?
In the disruptive change from a two-party dynamic it would seem quite likely that moderate factions may depart their old “home party” to coalesce into the new party. Under the new party's “big tent” the players would need to assemble the baggage they brought in with them – the diversity of views and agendas – to hammer together a new platform.
Under their remaining “pup-tents” aspiring "Partocrats" would be left behind to control the skeletal remains of their parties after former associates escaped taking their valuables with them. These big fish in their little Yertle the Turtle ponds may well struggle hard to keep the new 800 Pound Gorilla from gaining strength, but that effort could prove futile in the short run.
In the long run, however, fortunes and power wax and wane, ebb & flow. Seemingly lost causes have risen like phoenixes from their ashes in many places & times. The power of an 800 Pound Gorilla can also corrupt any who manage to wrest too much control in it. One day it too could be consigned to the early fate of the two parties that held sway before it came on the scene.
Yet to be seen, however, is whether America could begin to accept a three-party political paradigm as perhaps better than the old two-party model. Did not America's founders understand something when they chose a three-center model to create a balance of power between executive, legislative, & judicial branches of government? That consideration, would of course be rife for much public discussion and debate. Another issue that only time can answer.
What's in a Name?
Obviously only the new coalition's players could decide by coming to agreement on a name for their new 800 Pound Gorilla. While many possibly good choices would likely find prominence in any discussion, one possible candidate could be “Independence Party” with some appealing considerations:
- (I) designation already exists for (“little i”) independents, who already serve in and run for political positions
- The name highlights independence from the old (D) & (R) power structure and associated negative public opinion in general for “politics as usual.”
- Strong historical connotations of original struggle for independence from arrogant political power seemingly unwilling to heed the public will, need, & opinion
- Bottom line: requires only bringing new shades of meaning to status quo understanding
BUT – some potential stumbling blocks to overcome:
- potential legal issues & protest over use of the name
- potential confusion in public understanding: “Big (I)” = Independence vs. “Little (i.)” = independent
- disassociation from other entities with similar names
- strong individual preferences and logical arguments for other names
Ready-Made Fodder
The new party would have plenty of resources to draw from well known material. Many symbols & slogans from America's struggle for independence are already in use by potential players in the new party. Some ready-made “TV dinner” slogans could be pulled out of the freezer & heated up – making them attractive to catch attention by creatively turning their commonly understood meaning to new use. Existing terms are also available to point out dead albatrosses hanging from certain parties' necks.
Some examples of the latter:
- “nothing to lose but your chains” – foundational Marxist/Leninist revolutionary slogan could be used (as done many times already in allusion for many purposes) adding new meaning related to escaping oligarchic trending in the current two-party system as well as seeming “Neo-Marxist” efforts to wrest control – this not to mention haunting by Marley's ghost.
- Porkulus spending – “Tax & Spend Party” chickens come home to roost
- “Great Leader” posters – compare with “Supreme Leader” propaganda images gallery of rogues (e.g. Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin, Lenin, Mao, Kim Jong Il)
Rabbit out of the hat
It should be interesting to see how this plays out. Perhaps quite an interesting show for those looking on. A thrilling time to be alive for those that jump in to the fray to participate in the excitement and work to help shape their future. What kind of “rabbit” might they pull out? Could it be an 800 Pound Gorilla instead?
1What does history teach? G Santayana: “Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” G B Shaw: “We learn from history that we learn nothing from history.” The conundrum, why are both true?
